The Impact of Warming in Greenland on the North-Atlantic, Arctic, And West Pacific Oscillations, As Well as on Fire Risk in Siberia Is Increasing

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Article Type: Research Article
Issue: Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026)
Published: 28 March 2026
Pages: 12-44

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Kholoptsev, A. (2026). The Impact of Warming in Greenland on the North-Atlantic, Arctic, And West Pacific Oscillations, As Well as on Fire Risk in Siberia Is Increasing. Polar and Cold Regions Research, 2(1), 12-44. https://doi.org/10.65773/pcrr.1.1.72

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Authors

A.V. Kholoptsev
Zubov State Oceanographic Institute, Sevastopol, Russia

Abstract

One of the reasons for the increased fire danger due to weather conditions in any part of Siberia is the variations in average monthly surface air temperatures and average precipitation intensity. Significant factors in these processes include the North-Atlantic, Arctic, and West Pacific Oscillations. These oscillations are significantly influenced by the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, caused by warming in Greenland, which accelerates the melting of its ice sheet. A hypothesis has been put forward: - the connections between the mentioned fluctuations and variations in the average monthly surface air temperatures for the summer months in the 21-st century have increased and have now become significant for the entire territory of Greenland; the correlation of these processes with variations in fire danger in some areas of Siberia, has also become significant. Testing this hypothesis confirmed its validity. It was shown that warming in Greenland leads to an increase in the components of all the aforementioned fluctuations, as well as fire danger in the identified areas of Siberia with annual periods. Therefore, in the 21-st century, the links between these processes have significantly strengthened and become significant between 2011 and 2025. The negative feedback limiting the rate of warming in Greenland has intensified and become significant. With further warming, the identified connections will strengthen, and the risk of landscape fires in the identified areas of Siberia will increase during the corresponding months.

Keywords:
Siberia, Greenland, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Arctic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, surface air temperatures, precipitation, connections

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