The Impacts of Warming Ocean Currents and Rivers on Arctic Sea Ice

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Article Type: Research Article
Issue: Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026)
Published: 29 May 2026
Pages: 60-69

How to Cite

Song, X.-L., Zhou, S.-Q., Qu, L., Lu, Y.-Z., Pan, L.-D., & Gao, Q.-H. (2026). The Impacts of Warming Ocean Currents and Rivers on Arctic Sea Ice. Polar and Cold Regions Research, 2(1), 60-69. https://doi.org/10.65773/pcrr.2.1.160

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Authors

Xue-Long Song 1 , 
Sheng-Qi Zhou 2, 3, 4 , 
Ling Qu 5, 6 , 
Yuan-Zheng Lu 7 , 
Lu-Dan Pan 8 , 
Qun-Hui Gao 1 *
1 Guangxi Technological University, Beihai, China
2 State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
3 Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
4 Institution of South China Sea Ecology and Environmental Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China
5 Hubei Key Laboratory of Resources and Eco-Environment Geology, Hubei Geological Bureau, Wuhan 430034, China
6 Geophysical Exploration Brigade of Hubei Geological Bureau, Wuhan 430056, China
7 Earth and Environmental Systems Research Facility, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
8 School of Electronic Information, Beihai Campus, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Beihai, China

Abstract

Global warming plays a central role in the decline of Arctic sea ice, but the mechanisms remain debated. Using satellite remote sensing data from 1982 to 2023, we investigate the relationship between Sea Ice Area (SIA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Arctic Ocean. This study focuses on SIA across six marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean—the Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas—and investigates SST in regions affected by oceanic inflows and riverine freshwater discharge. These regions encompass the Barents Sea Branch of Atlantic Water inflow, the Ob and Yenisei River mouths, the Lena River mouth, the Kolyma and Chaun River mouths, the Pacific Water inflow region, and the Mackenzie River mouth. Results indicate that SST is strongly associated with the reduction in SIA, with additional influences from Pacific and Atlantic water inflows, as well as riverine discharges, which are associated with higher SST and lower SIA. Lagged correlation analysis reveals that SST changes precede SIA changes by approximately 13 days, indicating that SST changes precede subsequent changes in SIA. The 13-day lag and the significant linear relationship between SIA and SST provide evidence for a strong temporal association between the two variables. This study elucidates the impact of warming ocean currents and freshwater influxes on Arctic sea ice dynamics, contributing to our understanding of the role of oceanic thermal conditions in Arctic sea-ice variability.

Keywords:
Arctic sea ice decline, ocean currents, river discharges, sea surface temperature, sea ice area

Article Details

References

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