Greenland Warming Drives Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Amplified Fire Hazard in Northern Europe

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Volume 1 Issue 1 (2025): In Progress

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Kholoptsev, A. V. (2025). Greenland Warming Drives Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Amplified Fire Hazard in Northern Europe. Polar and Cold Regions Research, 1(1), 23-42. https://journals.explorerpress.com/index.php/pcrr/article/view/56

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A. V. Kholoptsev
Sevastopol, General Ostryakov Avenue, 229/3,299020,Russia

Abstract

One of the reasons for the change in fire danger associated with weather conditions in any part of Europe is the corresponding variations in average monthly surface air temperatures, as well as monthly precipitation. The factors, causing these variations, include changes in the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which has tended to weaken since the mid-19th century. This trend is driven by Greenland's warming climate, which is increasing the volume of cold freshwater flowing from its glaciers into the North Atlantic. A hypothesis has been put forward about the existence of areas in Europe for which the links between the aforementioned fire hazard factors and changes in average summer temperatures across the entire surface of Greenland have increased during the period of modern climate warming and are now significant. Testing this hypothesis showed, that such areas exist in the territories of some regions of Europe that belong to the Forest and Arctic zones. It has been established that with further warming of the climate in Greenland, the fire danger in such regions will continue to increase during the spring months. The proposed forecast corresponds to a scenario in which the ice cover on the territory of Greenland remains, and the current “soft” stage of weakening of the circulation in question does not turn into a “catastrophic” one. Therefore, it is advisable to take it into account when planning the further development of fire services and agriculture in Europe.

Keywords:
Greenland, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, thermal regime warming, fire weather risk, Northern Europe, climate linkages

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